Frogville´s Weather Service

Updated:  05-Nov-2026 11:06pm 
  Clear Temperature: 58.8°F   -1.1°F/hr Humidity: 75% Dew Point: 50.9°F Wind: E  0.3 mph Gust: 0.0 mph Barometer: 29.938 inHg  Steady Rain Today: 0.00 in UV Index: 0.0  None

969
FXUS65 KTWC 052104
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

A weather system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into early Saturday, mainly from Tucson
eastward with greatest chances in Cochise county. Dry conditions
resume thereafter. Breezy easterly winds are expected this
weekend. High temperatures will be below normal through
the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Another pleasant day this afternoon with slightly below normal
temperatures and some high level clouds streaming in aloft.

Southeastern Arizona`s next weather system is evident on water
vapor imagery digging south through the Great Basin into central
California. This will continue to drop south into Arizona on
Friday, with the wave deepened by an attendant jet streak over
northern Sonora-Chihuahua. Guidance has come into better
agreement with the strength of this low, which will produce
broad ascent over southeastern Arizona as well as a modest
moisture draw in to the region. This limited moisture field with
precipitable water values near 0.75 inches and surface dew
points in the 40s to lower 50s will combine with good cooling
aloft to produce a swath of 250 to near 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
on Friday. In this band of instability, mainly from Tucson to
Nogales eastward, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the afternoon through the evening hours.
These chances are greatest in Cochise through eastern
Graham/Greenlee counties, with recent high-resolution guidance
highlighting a potential for isolated rainfall totals in Cochise
county to exceed 0.5 inches with a very isolated shot at 1+
inches. Most areas should see less than a quarter inch of rain
but with sustained support aloft from the incoming shortwave,
repeated moderate rain showers or a brief heavy downpour may
produce a localized flash flooding threat. In collaboration with
WPC, a marginal risk for excessive rainfall will be in effect
on Friday.

Thunderstorm chances should diminish through the evening,
though isolated showers will continue to be possible through
early Saturday morning in far eastern areas as the upper wave
moves through. Cold temperatures aloft and lingering moisture
may cause some weak instability and diurnally driven showers
Saturday afternoon on the back side of the shortwave, but
predictability at any one point is low and the forecast remains
mostly dry for now. East winds will increase Saturday morning
with a tightening pressure gradient, especially in areas most
susceptible to east flow. In these areas sustained winds of
15-20 mph winds with gusts to 30 mph are likely, with 10-15 mph
and gusts to 25 mph elsewhere. East wind will continue through
Sunday, with weaker winds on Monday.

Model solutions diverge next week but overall the forecast
remains dry through much of the week. A signal for western
troughing shows up next Friday into the weekend, which should
be the next opportunity to start to bring at least low end
precipitation chances back into the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z. FEW-SCT high level cirrus
through much of the forecast period. Surface winds mainly light
and terrain driven through the forecast period, with a turn to
the east after 07/06Z. Increasing moisture Friday will bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms from late morning through
the evening, mainly near and east of KTUS-KOLS and with better
chances at KALK-KDUG. Ceilings should come down to around 6k-8k
with this activity. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An increase in moisture on Friday will bring scattered showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, mainly through
Cochise county into eastern Graham and Greenlee counties, though
as far west as eastern Pinal, eastern Pima, and Santa Cruz
counties. Isolated activity may begin over higher terrain as
early as late Friday morning. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish in the evening, but at least isolated shower chances
will continue overnight through early Saturday morning. The
chance of wetting rain or even heavy rain looks strongest in
Cochise county (20-60 percent chances of 0.1"). Winds will
remain light on Friday, though a gusty and erratic wind is
possible with any thunderstorm. Then increasing easterly winds
are expected Saturday through Sunday with areas open to easterly
flow seeing sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph.
Minimum RH values in the valleys will be in the 35-50 percent
range into next week (and higher in the mountains), with a few
lower elevation ares dipping below 30 percent early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Edwards
AVIATION...Edwards
FIRE WEATHER...Edwards

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion