Frogville´s Weather Service

Updated:  05-Jun-2026 3:45am 
  Clear Temperature: 74.0°F   -1.8°F/hr Humidity: 18% Dew Point: 27.8°F Wind: ESE  0.7 mph Gust: 0.0 mph Barometer: 29.694 inHg  Steady Rain Today: 0.00 in UV Index: 0.0  None

271
FXUS65 KTWC 050926
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
226 AM MST Fri Jun 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

High temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal
through the coming work week. Breezy conditions are expected
each afternoon, especially today and Saturday in the Gila River
Valley through Safford.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Moisture will continue to nudge east today, pushing
shower/thunderstorm chances east of the New Mexico border. There
will be some lingering moisture in the eastern counties this
afternoon with precipitable water values to 0.7", which will at
least allow for afternoon cloud build-ups and some virga. A
very light rain shower can`t be ruled out over the White
Mountains or Chiricahuas but otherwise the forecast across
southeastern Arizona is dry today. A slowly exiting closed low
over northern Mexico with a ridge axis to the northwest will
turn surface winds to the northwest today. While overall these
winds will remain in the 10-15 mph range, stronger winds are
expected through the Gila River valley with 18-24 mph winds and
gusts up to 35 mph. A similar wind pattern is likely on
Saturday. Where winds become strongest in the Gila (as well as
the upper Aravaipa Valley), periods of critical fire weather
conditions are likely with afternoon relative humidities falling
below 10 percent.

The wind pattern will shift Sunday onwards as west coast
troughing sets up. This will bring daily southwesterly breezes
across southeastern Arizona while keeping the forecast mostly
dry through the forecast period. There is a small fraction of
forecast models that bring a modest push of moisture back into
the region by the middle to late portions of next week, but
cloud build-ups and virga look more likely than an increase in
shower chances at this moment, at least until the end of next
week. Forecast high temperatures sit near normal to a few
degrees above normal through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 06/12Z.

FEW-SCT ceilings 12k-15k feet mainly near and east of KSAD-KOLS,
becoming SCT-BKN after 05/21Z. Surface winds become northwest
8-14 kts after 05/18Z, stronger at KSAD 17-20 kts with gusts up
to 32 kts through 06/03Z, diminishing thereafter. A few stronger
gusts possible this afternoon and early evening under virga
possible mainly in eastern areas including KSAD-KDUG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier conditions today as moisture has moved out to the east.
Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the single
digits across most lower elevation locations with 10-15 percent
values in the mountains. Winds will become northwesterly 10-15
mph across much of southeastern Arizona, though stronger through
the Gila River Valley at 18-24 mph with gusts up to 35 mph from
late this morning through the early evening. This wind and low
relative humidity combination through the Gila (and into the
upper Aravaipa Valley) will bring periods of locally critical
fire weather conditions today. Similar winds are likely tomorrow
with again locally critical or near critical fire weather
conditions in the Gila. Winds Sunday onwards will turn to the
southwest with winds 12-18 mph and gusts up to 25 mph each
afternoon through much of next week. Relative humidities remain
8-14 percent through at least early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Edwards
AVIATION...Edwards
FIRE WEATHER...Edwards

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion